859 Trading Days · Jan 2023 – Latest Session83 Annotated Events Across 8 CategoriesEvent-Day Volatility 2.59× Normal SessionsBest Day: QQQ +12.1% · 2025-04-09 — 90-day tariff PAUSE — largest single-day gain since 2020Worst Day: QQQ -5.0% · 2025-04-08 — China tariff escalation to 104%AI Events: 89% Win Rate · Avg +0.46%Fed Days: Perfect Coin Flip · 7 Up / 7 DownMonday is the Best Trading Day · +0.23% AvgThursday is the Worst · −0.17% AvgTech Underperforms on Macro Data Days (QQQ −SPY)859 Trading Days · Jan 2023 – Latest Session83 Annotated Events Across 8 CategoriesEvent-Day Volatility 2.59× Normal SessionsBest Day: QQQ +12.1% · 2025-04-09 — 90-day tariff PAUSE — largest single-day gain since 2020Worst Day: QQQ -5.0% · 2025-04-08 — China tariff escalation to 104%AI Events: 89% Win Rate · Avg +0.46%Fed Days: Perfect Coin Flip · 7 Up / 7 DownMonday is the Best Trading Day · +0.23% AvgThursday is the Worst · −0.17% AvgTech Underperforms on Macro Data Days (QQQ −SPY)
VALUEADD VC · MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Market Event Correlator

859 trading days of QQQ, SPY & NDX open→close returns annotated with 83 major market events — Fed decisions, tariff shocks, AI launches, IPOs, earnings, and more. Every correlation, pattern, and causal signal in one place.

DATASET
859
Trading Days
Jan 2023 – Latest Session
INSIGHT
2.59×
Event-Day Volatility
vs normal days (σ 2.19% vs 0.84%)
RECORD
+12.1%
Best Single Day
04/09/2025 — 90-day tariff PAUSE — largest
EDGE
+0.40%
Monday vs Thursday
best vs worst day of week spread
Total Days
859
Jan 2023 – Jun 2026
Event Days
83
9.7% of sessions
Avg Return/Day
+0.054%
Event-Day Vol
2.19%
annualized σ
Normal-Day Vol
0.84%
90.3% of all sessions
Best Day (QQQ)
+12.14%
04/09/2025
Worst Day (QQQ)
-5.04%
04/08/2025
01Overview
Cumulative Open→Close Return: QQQ vs SPY
Sum of daily open-to-close returns since Jan 2, 2023. Not total return (excludes overnight gaps & dividends) — measures pure intraday directional alpha. QQQ has accumulated -4.8% of intraday gains vs SPY's -2.6%.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
QQQ Open→Close Drawdown Curve
Distance from the rolling all-time-high on the cumulative open→close curve. Stays at 0 during new highs, slides negative during corrections. Deepest underwater: -21.5% on 04/08/2025 — the bottom of the April 2025 tariff shock sequence.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
Daily Return Distribution
Histogram of QQQ open→close returns across all 857 sessions. The market is modestly positively skewed — more large-up days than large-down days, but the fat left tail hits harder.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
Records & Milestones
Notable streaks, extremes, and structural stats from 857 sessions
Longest Win Streak
11/21/2025 → 12/03/2025
8 days
Longest Loss Streak
03/20/2026 → 03/30/2026
7 days
Best Day Ever
04/09/2025 · Trump tariff pause
+12.14%
Worst Day Ever
04/08/2025 · China 104% tariff
-5.04%
Event-Day Volatility
vs 0.84% on non-event days (2.55× higher)
2.19%
Big Move Days (±2%+)
4.7% of all sessions
40 days
Year-by-Year Performance
Average daily return, volatility, win rate, and extremes by calendar year
YearDaysAvg DailyVolatilityWin RateBest DayWorst Day
2023250+0.136%0.961%59%+2.956%-3.065%
2024252-0.016%0.880%52%+2.510%-3.491%
2025250+0.024%1.292%55%+12.135%-5.044%
2026107+0.095%0.990%55%+2.284%-4.800%
02Time Patterns
Avg Return by Day of Week
Monday leads by a wide margin (+0.23%). Thursday is the only day averaging negative returns (−0.17%). The Mon–Thu spread is the most reliable day-of-week edge in the dataset.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
Mon
+0.23%
64% up
Tue
+0.09%
58% up
Wed
+0.07%
52% up
Thu
-0.17%
46% up
Fri
+0.05%
56% up
Avg Return by Calendar Month
Across 2023–2026. January, March, and October lead. September and December lag — driven by FOMC surprises and year-end tax-loss selling respectively.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
Daily Return Calendar Heatmap — All 857 Sessions
Each square = one trading day. Green = positive open→close, Red = negative. Intensity scales with magnitude. April 2025 is visually unmistakable — the tariff shock week followed by the +12% recovery.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
01/23
02/23
03/23
04/23
05/23
06/23
07/23
08/23
09/23
10/23
11/23
12/23
01/24
02/24
03/24
04/24
05/24
06/24
07/24
08/24
09/24
10/24
11/24
12/24
01/25
02/25
03/25
04/25
05/25
06/25
07/25
08/25
09/25
10/25
11/25
12/25
01/26
02/26
03/26
04/26
05/26
06/26
Intensity = magnitude · Outlined = annotated event
< +1%
+1–3%
> +3%
> −1%
−1–3%
< −3%
Monthly Average Daily Return — Year × Month Grid
Avg daily QQQ return per calendar month. Quickly spot which months in which years drove or hurt performance.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2023
+0.51%
20d
+0.22%
19d
+0.25%
23d
+0.10%
19d
+0.19%
22d
+0.25%
21d
+0.00%
20d
-0.10%
23d
-0.19%
20d
-0.02%
22d
+0.26%
21d
+0.18%
20d
2024
+0.14%
21d
+0.11%
20d
-0.10%
20d
-0.25%
22d
+0.10%
22d
+0.17%
19d
-0.27%
22d
+0.04%
22d
-0.08%
20d
-0.11%
23d
+0.12%
20d
-0.01%
21d
2025
-0.09%
20d
-0.09%
19d
-0.18%
21d
+0.58%
21d
+0.18%
21d
+0.12%
20d
-0.05%
22d
+0.03%
21d
+0.09%
21d
-0.11%
23d
-0.13%
19d
-0.07%
22d
2026
-0.06%
20d
+0.01%
19d
-0.05%
22d
+0.45%
21d
+0.37%
20d
-0.88%
5d
——————
Daily Return Heatmap — All Sessions
GitHub-style contribution grid: each cell is one trading day, coloured by QQQ open→close return intensity. Weeks run left-to-right, Mon→Fri top-to-bottom. Years are stacked side-by-side so you can spot regime shifts at a glance.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
2023
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMTWTF2023-01-02: no session2023-01-03: -1.55%2023-01-04: -0.34%2023-01-05: -0.93%2023-01-06: +2.07%2023-01-09: -0.11%2023-01-10: +1.24%2023-01-11: +1.33%2023-01-12: +0.33%2023-01-13: +1.62%2023-01-16: no session2023-01-17: +0.27%2023-01-18: -1.85%2023-01-19: -0.39%2023-01-20: +2.13%2023-01-23: +1.91%2023-01-24: +0.37%2023-01-25: +1.40%2023-01-26: +0.73%2023-01-27: +1.46%2023-01-30: -0.91%2023-01-31: +1.48%2023-02-01: +2.21% · FOMC +25bps2023-02-02: +1.35% · Apple Q1 beat2023-02-03: +0.41%2023-02-06: +0.03%2023-02-07: +2.12%2023-02-08: -1.35%2023-02-09: -2.32%2023-02-10: +0.07%2023-02-13: +1.12%2023-02-14: +1.27%2023-02-15: +1.38%2023-02-16: -0.35%2023-02-17: +0.03%2023-02-20: no session2023-02-21: -1.09%2023-02-22: -0.13%2023-02-23: -0.39%2023-02-24: +0.03%2023-02-27: -0.38%2023-02-28: +0.09%2023-03-01: -0.70%2023-03-02: +1.71%2023-03-03: +1.45%2023-03-06: -0.31%2023-03-07: -1.24%2023-03-08: +0.35%2023-03-09: -1.90%2023-03-10: -1.46% · SVB Failure2023-03-13: +1.38% · Signature Bank closed2023-03-14: +1.04% · GPT-4 launched2023-03-15: +1.43%2023-03-16: +2.96% · Credit Suisse/First Republic backstop2023-03-17: -0.44%2023-03-20: +0.56% · Goldman: AI could displace 300M jobs2023-03-21: +0.78%2023-03-22: -1.34%2023-03-23: -0.05%2023-03-24: +0.51%2023-03-27: -0.91%2023-03-28: -0.34%2023-03-29: +0.59%2023-03-30: +0.14%2023-03-31: +1.59%2023-04-03: +0.43%2023-04-04: -0.48%2023-04-05: -0.69%2023-04-06: +1.21%2023-04-07: no session2023-04-10: +0.89%2023-04-11: -0.63%2023-04-12: -1.50%2023-04-13: +1.38%2023-04-14: +0.31%2023-04-17: +0.22%2023-04-18: -0.66%2023-04-19: +0.73%2023-04-20: +0.19%2023-04-21: +0.22%2023-04-24: -0.14%2023-04-25: -1.37%2023-04-26: -0.50%2023-04-27: +1.47%2023-04-28: +0.77%2023-05-01: +0.03%2023-05-02: -0.85%2023-05-03: -0.77% · FOMC +25bps (may be last)2023-05-04: -0.28%2023-05-05: +1.39%2023-05-08: +0.39%2023-05-09: -0.11%2023-05-10: +0.31%2023-05-11: +0.15%2023-05-12: -0.52%2023-05-15: +0.39%2023-05-16: +0.34%2023-05-17: +0.88%2023-05-18: +1.73%2023-05-19: -0.29%2023-05-22: +0.41%2023-05-23: -0.75%2023-05-24: +0.08%2023-05-25: +0.17% · NVIDIA AI guidance shock (Q1 FY2024)2023-05-26: +2.24%2023-05-29: no session2023-05-30: -0.77%2023-05-31: -0.11%2023-06-01: +1.23%2023-06-02: +0.24%2023-06-05: +0.13%2023-06-06: +0.16%2023-06-07: -1.78%2023-06-08: +1.15%2023-06-09: -0.04%2023-06-12: +1.21%2023-06-13: -0.01%2023-06-14: +0.72% · FOMC HOLD — first pause2023-06-15: +1.55%2023-06-16: -1.29%2023-06-19: no session2023-06-20: +0.26%2023-06-21: -1.05%2023-06-22: +1.54%2023-06-23: +0.09%2023-06-26: -1.19%2023-06-27: +1.27%2023-06-28: +0.71%2023-06-29: -0.12%2023-06-30: +0.51%2023-07-03: +0.06%2023-07-04: no session2023-07-05: +0.43%2023-07-06: +0.26%2023-07-07: -0.27%2023-07-10: +0.11%2023-07-11: +0.38%2023-07-12: +0.13%2023-07-13: +0.82%2023-07-14: -0.14%2023-07-17: +0.74%2023-07-18: +0.99% · Meta releases Llama 2 (open source)2023-07-19: -0.30%2023-07-20: -1.53%2023-07-21: -0.94%2023-07-24: -0.10%2023-07-25: +0.49%2023-07-26: -0.05% · FOMC +25bps2023-07-27: -1.68%2023-07-28: +0.72%2023-07-31: -0.03%2023-08-01: +0.13%2023-08-02: -1.28%2023-08-03: +0.50%2023-08-04: -0.99%2023-08-07: +0.35%2023-08-08: -0.17%2023-08-09: -1.18%2023-08-10: -0.64%2023-08-11: +0.07%2023-08-14: +1.35%2023-08-15: -0.80%2023-08-16: -0.91%2023-08-17: -1.48%2023-08-18: +0.81%2023-08-21: +1.19%2023-08-22: -0.86%2023-08-23: +1.24% · NVIDIA Q2 FY2024 beat2023-08-24: -3.06%2023-08-25: +0.54% · Jackson Hole — Powell hawkish2023-08-28: -0.06%2023-08-29: +2.24%2023-08-30: +0.53%2023-08-31: +0.28%2023-09-01: -0.74%2023-09-04: no session2023-09-05: +0.34%2023-09-06: -0.67%2023-09-07: +0.50%2023-09-08: +0.15%2023-09-11: +0.35%2023-09-12: -0.66%2023-09-13: +0.32%2023-09-14: +0.34% · ARM Holdings IPO2023-09-15: -1.36%2023-09-18: +0.36%2023-09-19: +0.15% · Instacart (CART) IPO2023-09-20: -1.73% · Klaviyo (KVYO) IPO2023-09-21: -0.81%2023-09-22: -0.48%2023-09-25: +0.75%2023-09-26: -0.78%2023-09-27: -0.10%2023-09-28: +1.10%2023-09-29: -0.90%2023-10-02: +0.76%2023-10-03: -1.08%2023-10-04: +1.12%2023-10-05: -0.29%2023-10-06: +2.54% · Jobs Report (Sep) — big beat2023-10-09: +1.18%2023-10-10: +0.46%2023-10-11: +0.35% · Birkenstock (BIRK) IPO2023-10-12: -0.48%2023-10-13: -1.43%2023-10-16: +0.76%2023-10-17: +0.65%2023-10-18: -0.63%2023-10-19: -1.33%2023-10-20: -1.35%2023-10-23: +0.68%2023-10-24: +0.45%2023-10-25: -1.78%2023-10-26: -1.56%2023-10-27: -0.32%2023-10-30: +0.39%2023-10-31: +0.47%2023-11-01: +1.49% · FOMC HOLD2023-11-02: +0.53%2023-11-03: +0.81%2023-11-06: +0.20%2023-11-07: +0.66%2023-11-08: -0.04%2023-11-09: -0.96%2023-11-10: +1.77%2023-11-13: +0.11%2023-11-14: +0.42%2023-11-15: -0.42%2023-11-16: +0.29%2023-11-17: +0.22%2023-11-20: +1.21%2023-11-21: -0.14%2023-11-22: -0.13%2023-11-23: no session2023-11-24: -0.04%2023-11-27: +0.04%2023-11-28: +0.46%2023-11-29: -0.73%2023-11-30: -0.32%2023-12-01: +0.56%2023-12-04: +0.06%2023-12-05: +0.75%2023-12-06: -1.34%2023-12-07: +0.61%2023-12-08: +0.90%2023-12-11: +0.96%2023-12-12: +0.79%2023-12-13: +1.03% · FOMC HOLD — dovish pivot2023-12-14: -0.39%2023-12-15: +0.29%2023-12-18: +0.53%2023-12-19: +0.40%2023-12-20: -1.29%2023-12-21: +0.17%2023-12-22: -0.15%2023-12-25: no session2023-12-26: +0.40%2023-12-27: +0.13%2023-12-28: -0.33%2023-12-29: -0.43%
2024
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMTWTF2024-01-01: no session2024-01-02: -0.80%2024-01-03: -0.40%2024-01-04: -0.04%2024-01-05: +0.08%2024-01-08: +1.75%2024-01-09: +0.96%2024-01-10: +0.60%2024-01-11: -0.11%2024-01-12: -0.20%2024-01-15: no session2024-01-16: +0.30%2024-01-17: +0.26%2024-01-18: +0.60%2024-01-19: +1.44%2024-01-22: -0.40%2024-01-23: +0.25%2024-01-24: -0.38%2024-01-25: -0.47%2024-01-26: -0.15%2024-01-29: +0.91%2024-01-30: -0.42%2024-01-31: -0.92% · FOMC HOLD — cut hopes delayed2024-02-01: +0.74%2024-02-02: +1.23%2024-02-05: -0.14%2024-02-06: -0.47%2024-02-07: +0.37%2024-02-08: +0.16%2024-02-09: +0.72%2024-02-12: -0.37%2024-02-13: +0.30% · Hot CPI print2024-02-14: +0.45%2024-02-15: +0.14% · OpenAI Sora revealed2024-02-16: -0.99%2024-02-19: no session2024-02-20: -0.29%2024-02-21: +0.25% · NVIDIA Q4 FY2024 blowout2024-02-22: +0.82%2024-02-23: -0.65%2024-02-26: -0.24%2024-02-27: -0.02%2024-02-28: -0.04%2024-02-29: +0.18% · Reddit (RDDT) S-1 filed2024-03-01: +1.30%2024-03-04: -0.36%2024-03-05: -1.11%2024-03-06: -0.35%2024-03-07: +0.68%2024-03-08: -1.52%2024-03-11: -0.03%2024-03-12: +0.89%2024-03-13: -0.54%2024-03-14: -0.53%2024-03-15: -0.49%2024-03-18: -0.28%2024-03-19: +0.72%2024-03-20: +0.91% · Astera Labs (ALAB) IPO2024-03-21: -0.67% · Reddit (RDDT) IPO2024-03-22: +0.23%2024-03-25: +0.27%2024-03-26: -0.67%2024-03-27: -0.36%2024-03-28: -0.17%2024-03-29: no session2024-04-01: -0.00%2024-04-02: +0.23%2024-04-03: +0.72%2024-04-04: -2.46%2024-04-05: +0.84%2024-04-08: -0.18%2024-04-09: -0.16%2024-04-10: +0.31% · Hot CPI — cuts pushed to Sept2024-04-11: +1.16%2024-04-12: -0.64%2024-04-15: -2.49%2024-04-16: +0.05%2024-04-17: -1.68%2024-04-18: -0.72%2024-04-19: -1.79% · Israel strikes Iran2024-04-22: +0.36%2024-04-23: +1.02%2024-04-24: -0.39%2024-04-25: +1.24% · Rubrik (RBRK) IPO2024-04-26: +0.79%2024-04-29: -0.09%2024-04-30: -1.52%2024-05-01: -0.39% · Viking Holdings (VIK) IPO2024-05-02: +0.38%2024-05-03: +0.24%2024-05-06: +0.67%2024-05-07: -0.09%2024-05-08: +0.55%2024-05-09: +0.16%2024-05-10: -0.11%2024-05-13: -0.20% · OpenAI GPT-4o launched2024-05-14: +0.74%2024-05-15: +1.00%2024-05-16: -0.16%2024-05-17: -0.08%2024-05-20: +0.65%2024-05-21: +0.61%2024-05-22: -0.08% · NVIDIA Q1 FY2025 beat2024-05-23: -1.50%2024-05-24: +0.58%2024-05-27: no session2024-05-28: +0.11%2024-05-29: +0.21%2024-05-30: -0.87%2024-05-31: -0.24%2024-06-03: -0.32%2024-06-04: +0.33%2024-06-05: +1.21%2024-06-06: -0.18%2024-06-07: -0.01%2024-06-10: +0.65% · Apple Intelligence announced at WWDC2024-06-11: +0.97%2024-06-12: +0.46% · FOMC HOLD — 1 cut projected2024-06-13: -0.21%2024-06-14: +0.56% · Golden Age of IPOs narrative2024-06-17: +1.17%2024-06-18: +0.04%2024-06-19: no session2024-06-20: -1.02% · Lineage (LINE) IPO2024-06-21: -0.21%2024-06-24: -0.88%2024-06-25: +0.70%2024-06-26: +0.38%2024-06-27: +0.31%2024-06-28: -0.68%2024-07-01: +0.39%2024-07-02: +1.37%2024-07-03: +0.99%2024-07-04: no session2024-07-05: +0.87%2024-07-08: +0.16%2024-07-09: -0.22%2024-07-10: +0.65%2024-07-11: -2.21% · CPI cool — rotation trade ignites2024-07-12: +0.47%2024-07-15: -0.09%2024-07-16: -0.26%2024-07-17: -1.33% · Trump assassination attempt + Crowdstrike outage2024-07-18: -1.24%2024-07-19: -0.82% · CrowdStrike global IT outage2024-07-22: +0.24%2024-07-23: -0.16%2024-07-24: -2.20%2024-07-25: -1.18%2024-07-26: +0.07%2024-07-29: -0.39%2024-07-30: -1.79%2024-07-31: +0.68%2024-08-01: -2.56% · Sahm Rule triggered + Japan rate hike fears2024-08-02: -0.47%2024-08-05: +2.51% · Japan carry trade collapse — Black Monday2024-08-06: +0.53%2024-08-07: -2.62% · Carry trade volatility continues2024-08-08: +1.59%2024-08-09: +0.82%2024-08-12: -0.00%2024-08-13: +1.48%2024-08-14: -0.17%2024-08-15: +1.21%2024-08-16: +0.51%2024-08-19: +1.28%2024-08-20: -0.02%2024-08-21: +0.30%2024-08-22: -2.06%2024-08-23: +0.16%2024-08-26: -0.86%2024-08-27: +0.65%2024-08-28: -1.04% · NVIDIA Q2 FY2025 beat (muted reaction)2024-08-29: -0.55%2024-08-30: +0.26%2024-09-02: no session2024-09-03: -2.41%2024-09-04: +0.42%2024-09-05: +0.45%2024-09-06: -2.53% · Weak jobs report2024-09-09: +0.31%2024-09-10: +0.53%2024-09-11: +1.89%2024-09-12: +0.98%2024-09-13: +0.61%2024-09-16: +0.01%2024-09-17: -0.59%2024-09-18: -0.69% · FOMC — FIRST CUT: -50bps2024-09-19: +0.16%2024-09-20: -0.01%2024-09-23: +0.02%2024-09-24: +0.19%2024-09-25: +0.22%2024-09-26: -0.79%2024-09-27: -0.76%2024-09-30: +0.47%2024-10-01: -1.32%2024-10-02: +0.33%2024-10-03: +0.39%2024-10-04: -0.03%2024-10-07: -0.68%2024-10-08: +0.96%2024-10-09: +0.85%2024-10-10: +0.35% · CPI slightly hot2024-10-11: +0.53%2024-10-14: +0.35%2024-10-15: -1.40%2024-10-16: -0.06%2024-10-17: -1.05%2024-10-18: +0.08%2024-10-21: +0.44%2024-10-22: +0.66%2024-10-23: -1.06%2024-10-24: +0.04%2024-10-25: +0.04%2024-10-28: -0.61%2024-10-29: +0.90%2024-10-30: -0.60%2024-10-31: -1.73%2024-11-01: +0.40%2024-11-04: -0.17%2024-11-05: +0.94% · US Election Day2024-11-06: +1.00%2024-11-07: +1.01% · FOMC -25bps + Election Rally2024-11-08: +0.21%2024-11-11: -0.30%2024-11-12: -0.17%2024-11-13: -0.03%2024-11-14: -0.63%2024-11-15: -1.27%2024-11-18: +0.38%2024-11-19: +1.21%2024-11-20: +0.00% · NVIDIA Q3 FY2025 beat2024-11-21: -0.25%2024-11-22: +0.27%2024-11-25: -0.65%2024-11-26: +0.24%2024-11-27: -0.56%2024-11-28: no session2024-11-29: +0.75%2024-12-02: +0.84%2024-12-03: +0.57%2024-12-04: +0.56%2024-12-05: -0.29%2024-12-06: +0.77%2024-12-09: -0.60%2024-12-10: -0.58%2024-12-11: +0.94% · CPI in-line2024-12-12: -0.22% · ServiceTitan (SITI) IPO2024-12-13: +0.01%2024-12-16: +0.95%2024-12-17: -0.10%2024-12-18: -3.49% · FOMC -25bps — hawkish shock2024-12-19: -1.35%2024-12-20: +1.61%2024-12-23: +0.64%2024-12-24: +0.98%2024-12-25: no session2024-12-26: +0.24%2024-12-27: -0.66%2024-12-30: +0.02%2024-12-31: -1.10%
2025
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMTWTF2025-01-01: no session2025-01-02: -0.79%2025-01-03: +1.02%2025-01-06: +0.10%2025-01-07: -1.98%2025-01-08: +0.04%2025-01-09: no session2025-01-10: -0.84%2025-01-13: +0.87%2025-01-14: -0.72%2025-01-15: +0.72%2025-01-16: -1.14%2025-01-17: -0.21%2025-01-20: no session2025-01-21: +0.06% · Stargate Project announced2025-01-22: +0.37%2025-01-23: +0.68%2025-01-24: -0.64%2025-01-27: +0.63% · DeepSeek R1 — AI efficiency shock2025-01-28: +1.28%2025-01-29: -0.31% · FOMC HOLD2025-01-30: -0.13%2025-01-31: -0.88%2025-02-03: +0.90%2025-02-04: +1.13%2025-02-05: +0.96%2025-02-06: +0.42%2025-02-07: -1.36%2025-02-10: +0.39%2025-02-11: +0.39%2025-02-12: +1.15%2025-02-13: +1.12%2025-02-14: +0.40%2025-02-17: no session2025-02-18: -0.07%2025-02-19: +0.18% · FOMC minutes hawkish2025-02-20: -0.28%2025-02-21: -2.28%2025-02-24: -1.52%2025-02-25: -1.14%2025-02-26: -0.19% · NVIDIA Q4 FY2025 beat — DeepSeek hangover2025-02-27: -3.45% · Tariff threat + weak PCE + NVDA selloff2025-02-28: +1.61%2025-03-03: -2.83% · Canada/Mexico tariffs activated2025-03-04: +0.28%2025-03-05: +1.17%2025-03-06: -1.11%2025-03-07: +0.95%2025-03-10: -2.22%2025-03-11: -0.16%2025-03-12: -0.47% · Retaliation tariffs announced2025-03-13: -1.66%2025-03-14: +1.25%2025-03-17: +0.66%2025-03-18: -1.02%2025-03-19: +0.86%2025-03-20: +0.50%2025-03-21: +1.43%2025-03-24: +0.60%2025-03-25: +0.42%2025-03-26: -1.61%2025-03-27: -0.16%2025-03-28: -2.27% · CoreWeave (CRWV) IPO2025-03-31: +1.52%2025-04-01: +1.16%2025-04-02: +2.15% · Liberation Day — Trump tariff shock2025-04-03: -1.27%2025-04-04: -3.53% · China 34% retaliation tariff2025-04-07: +3.68% · Tariff pause rumors + short squeeze2025-04-08: -5.04% · China tariff escalation to 104%2025-04-09: +12.14% · 90-day tariff PAUSE — largest single-day gain since 20202025-04-10: -1.63%2025-04-11: +2.19%2025-04-14: -1.50%2025-04-15: -0.12%2025-04-16: -1.08%2025-04-17: -0.69%2025-04-18: no session2025-04-21: -1.17%2025-04-22: +1.29%2025-04-23: -0.79%2025-04-24: +2.38% · Alphabet/Tesla beat + trade deal hopes2025-04-25: +1.20%2025-04-28: -0.13%2025-04-29: +1.14%2025-04-30: +1.79%2025-05-01: -0.36%2025-05-02: +0.47%2025-05-05: +0.27%2025-05-06: +0.39%2025-05-07: +0.25% · Google I/O — AI Mode, Gemini advances2025-05-08: -0.05%2025-05-09: -0.46%2025-05-12: +0.17% · US-China 90-day tariff truce2025-05-13: +1.26%2025-05-14: +0.37%2025-05-15: +0.53%2025-05-16: +0.16% · Moody's US credit downgrade2025-05-19: +1.51%2025-05-20: +0.15% · Klarna IPO2025-05-21: -0.63%2025-05-22: +0.07% · 'Big Beautiful Bill' passes House2025-05-23: +0.60%2025-05-26: no session2025-05-27: +0.98%2025-05-28: -0.63% · NVIDIA Q1 FY2026 strong beat2025-05-29: -1.22%2025-05-30: -0.06%2025-06-02: +1.15%2025-06-03: +0.71%2025-06-04: +0.14%2025-06-05: -1.02%2025-06-06: -0.02%2025-06-09: +0.11%2025-06-10: +0.57%2025-06-11: -0.60% · Hinge Health IPO2025-06-12: +0.48%2025-06-13: -0.14%2025-06-16: +0.71%2025-06-17: -0.49%2025-06-18: -0.21% · FOMC HOLD2025-06-19: no session2025-06-20: -1.02%2025-06-23: +0.92%2025-06-24: +0.54%2025-06-25: -0.17%2025-06-26: +0.53%2025-06-27: +0.15%2025-06-30: +0.07%2025-07-01: -0.50%2025-07-02: +0.85%2025-07-03: +0.55%2025-07-04: no session2025-07-07: -0.27%2025-07-08: -0.19%2025-07-09: +0.32%2025-07-10: -0.26%2025-07-11: +0.16%2025-07-14: +0.40%2025-07-15: -0.63%2025-07-16: +0.00%2025-07-17: +0.68%2025-07-18: -0.33%2025-07-21: +0.37%2025-07-22: -0.54%2025-07-23: +0.26%2025-07-24: -0.02%2025-07-25: +0.25%2025-07-28: +0.07%2025-07-29: -0.61%2025-07-30: -0.03%2025-07-31: -1.66%2025-08-01: -0.89%2025-08-04: +0.90%2025-08-05: -0.91%2025-08-06: +1.11%2025-08-07: -0.43%2025-08-08: +0.72%2025-08-11: -0.32%2025-08-12: +0.85%2025-08-13: -0.42%2025-08-14: +0.28%2025-08-15: -0.42%2025-08-18: +0.12%2025-08-19: -1.23%2025-08-20: -0.43%2025-08-21: -0.19%2025-08-22: +1.29%2025-08-25: -0.01%2025-08-26: +0.49%2025-08-27: +0.33%2025-08-28: +0.52%2025-08-29: -0.74%2025-09-01: no session2025-09-02: +0.77%2025-09-03: +0.15%2025-09-04: +0.79%2025-09-05: -0.76%2025-09-08: +0.09%2025-09-09: +0.14%2025-09-10: -0.52%2025-09-11: +0.14%2025-09-12: +0.28%2025-09-15: +0.55%2025-09-16: -0.24%2025-09-17: -0.19%2025-09-18: +0.07%2025-09-19: +0.34%2025-09-22: +0.75%2025-09-23: -0.69%2025-09-24: -0.58%2025-09-25: +0.22%2025-09-26: +0.27%2025-09-29: -0.06%2025-09-30: +0.32%2025-10-01: +1.02%2025-10-02: -0.22%2025-10-03: -0.55%2025-10-06: -0.12%2025-10-07: -0.74%2025-10-08: +1.00%2025-10-09: -0.13%2025-10-10: -3.58% · Tariff escalation — 90-day pause expired2025-10-13: +0.39%2025-10-14: +0.45%2025-10-15: -0.30%2025-10-16: -0.85%2025-10-17: +1.00%2025-10-20: +0.72%2025-10-21: -0.04%2025-10-22: -0.87%2025-10-23: +0.94%2025-10-24: +0.18%2025-10-27: +0.57%2025-10-28: +0.41%2025-10-29: +0.03%2025-10-30: -0.97%2025-10-31: -0.80%2025-11-03: -0.48%2025-11-04: -0.65%2025-11-05: +0.77%2025-11-06: -1.63%2025-11-07: +0.24%2025-11-10: +0.70%2025-11-11: +0.16%2025-11-12: -0.60%2025-11-13: -1.48%2025-11-14: +1.55%2025-11-17: -0.44%2025-11-18: -0.55%2025-11-19: +0.47%2025-11-20: -4.24% · Major market shock2025-11-21: +0.44%2025-11-24: +1.66%2025-11-25: +0.89%2025-11-26: +0.29%2025-11-27: no session2025-11-28: +0.51%2025-12-01: +0.58%2025-12-02: +0.41%2025-12-03: +0.63%2025-12-04: -0.32%2025-12-05: +0.18%2025-12-08: -0.47%2025-12-09: +0.33%2025-12-10: +0.60%2025-12-11: +0.28%2025-12-12: -1.36%2025-12-15: -1.27%2025-12-16: +0.57%2025-12-17: -2.06%2025-12-18: -0.11%2025-12-19: +0.83%2025-12-22: -0.34%2025-12-23: +0.63%2025-12-24: +0.31%2025-12-25: no session2025-12-26: -0.12%2025-12-29: +0.12%2025-12-30: -0.07%2025-12-31: -0.86%
2026
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMTWTF2026-01-01: no session2026-01-02: -1.12%2026-01-05: -0.21%2026-01-06: +0.68%2026-01-07: +0.16%2026-01-08: -0.41%2026-01-09: +0.84%2026-01-12: +0.78%2026-01-13: -0.16%2026-01-14: -0.43%2026-01-15: -0.77%2026-01-16: -0.68%2026-01-19: no session2026-01-20: -0.40%2026-01-21: +1.12%2026-01-22: -0.26%2026-01-23: +0.48%2026-01-26: +0.36%2026-01-27: +0.35%2026-01-28: -0.35%2026-01-29: -0.51%2026-01-30: -0.61%2026-02-02: +1.20%2026-02-03: -1.87%2026-02-04: -1.51%2026-02-05: -0.53%2026-02-06: +1.58%2026-02-09: +1.12%2026-02-10: -0.62%2026-02-11: -0.53%2026-02-12: -2.29%2026-02-13: +0.25%2026-02-16: no session2026-02-17: +0.49%2026-02-18: +0.61%2026-02-19: +0.11%2026-02-20: +1.45%2026-02-23: -0.86%2026-02-24: +0.91%2026-02-25: +0.92%2026-02-26: -1.03%2026-02-27: +0.71%2026-03-02: +1.54%2026-03-03: +0.88%2026-03-04: +1.09%2026-03-05: +0.25%2026-03-06: -0.09%2026-03-09: +2.28% · Market recovery / buyback season2026-03-10: -0.00%2026-03-11: -0.21%2026-03-12: -0.91%2026-03-13: -1.00%2026-03-16: +0.06%2026-03-17: +0.03%2026-03-18: -1.10%2026-03-19: +0.60%2026-03-20: -1.52%2026-03-23: -0.43%2026-03-24: -0.14%2026-03-25: -0.22%2026-03-26: -1.51%2026-03-27: -1.44%2026-03-30: -1.60%2026-03-31: +2.28% · Quarter-end rebalancing rally2026-04-01: +0.49%2026-04-02: +1.92%2026-04-03: no session2026-04-06: +0.39%2026-04-07: +0.50%2026-04-08: -0.43%2026-04-09: +0.70%2026-04-10: -0.13%2026-04-13: +1.30%2026-04-14: +1.35%2026-04-15: +1.32%2026-04-16: +0.20%2026-04-17: +0.51%2026-04-20: -0.19%2026-04-21: -0.63%2026-04-22: +0.76%2026-04-23: -0.33%2026-04-24: +0.82%2026-04-27: +0.13%2026-04-28: +0.02%2026-04-29: +0.45%2026-04-30: +0.36%2026-05-01: +0.75%2026-05-04: -0.26%2026-05-05: +0.54%2026-05-06: +1.16%2026-05-07: -0.24%2026-05-08: +1.62%2026-05-11: +0.41%2026-05-12: -0.14%2026-05-13: +0.67%2026-05-14: +0.72%2026-05-15: -0.17%2026-05-18: -0.80%2026-05-19: +0.25%2026-05-20: +1.11%2026-05-21: +0.78%2026-05-22: -0.07%2026-05-25: no session2026-05-26: +0.60%2026-05-27: -0.48%2026-05-28: +0.80%2026-05-29: +0.06%2026-06-01: +0.77%2026-06-02: +0.51%2026-06-03: -0.41%2026-06-04: -0.48% · Broadcom AI miss2026-06-05: -4.80% · Hot Jobs Report2026-06-08: no session2026-06-09: no session2026-06-10: no session2026-06-11: no session2026-06-12: no session2026-06-15: no session2026-06-16: no session2026-06-17: no session2026-06-18: no session2026-06-19: no session2026-06-22: no session2026-06-23: no session2026-06-24: no session2026-06-25: no session2026-06-26: no session2026-06-29: no session2026-06-30: no session2026-07-01: no session2026-07-02: no session2026-07-03: no session2026-07-06: no session2026-07-07: no session2026-07-08: no session2026-07-09: no session2026-07-10: no session2026-07-13: no session2026-07-14: no session2026-07-15: no session2026-07-16: no session2026-07-17: no session2026-07-20: no session2026-07-21: no session2026-07-22: no session2026-07-23: no session2026-07-24: no session2026-07-27: no session2026-07-28: no session2026-07-29: no session2026-07-30: no session2026-07-31: no session2026-08-03: no session2026-08-04: no session2026-08-05: no session2026-08-06: no session2026-08-07: no session2026-08-10: no session2026-08-11: no session2026-08-12: no session2026-08-13: no session2026-08-14: no session2026-08-17: no session2026-08-18: no session2026-08-19: no session2026-08-20: no session2026-08-21: no session2026-08-24: no session2026-08-25: no session2026-08-26: no session2026-08-27: no session2026-08-28: no session2026-08-31: no session2026-09-01: no session2026-09-02: no session2026-09-03: no session2026-09-04: no session2026-09-07: no session2026-09-08: no session2026-09-09: no session2026-09-10: no session2026-09-11: no session2026-09-14: no session2026-09-15: no session2026-09-16: no session2026-09-17: no session2026-09-18: no session2026-09-21: no session2026-09-22: no session2026-09-23: no session2026-09-24: no session2026-09-25: no session2026-09-28: no session2026-09-29: no session2026-09-30: no session2026-10-01: no session2026-10-02: no session2026-10-05: no session2026-10-06: no session2026-10-07: no session2026-10-08: no session2026-10-09: no session2026-10-12: no session2026-10-13: no session2026-10-14: no session2026-10-15: no session2026-10-16: no session2026-10-19: no session2026-10-20: no session2026-10-21: no session2026-10-22: no session2026-10-23: no session2026-10-26: no session2026-10-27: no session2026-10-28: no session2026-10-29: no session2026-10-30: no session2026-11-02: no session2026-11-03: no session2026-11-04: no session2026-11-05: no session2026-11-06: no session2026-11-09: no session2026-11-10: no session2026-11-11: no session2026-11-12: no session2026-11-13: no session2026-11-16: no session2026-11-17: no session2026-11-18: no session2026-11-19: no session2026-11-20: no session2026-11-23: no session2026-11-24: no session2026-11-25: no session2026-11-26: no session2026-11-27: no session2026-11-30: no session2026-12-01: no session2026-12-02: no session2026-12-03: no session2026-12-04: no session2026-12-07: no session2026-12-08: no session2026-12-09: no session2026-12-10: no session2026-12-11: no session2026-12-14: no session2026-12-15: no session2026-12-16: no session2026-12-17: no session2026-12-18: no session2026-12-21: no session2026-12-22: no session2026-12-23: no session2026-12-24: no session2026-12-25: no session2026-12-28: no session2026-12-29: no session2026-12-30: no session2026-12-31: no session
QQQ Open→Close Return:
≤ −3%
−1 to −3%
0 to −1%
0 to +1%
+1 to +3%
≥ +3%
no session
03Event Intelligence
Avg QQQ Return by Event Type
AI and Banking Crisis events are surprisingly bullish on average. Macro data and Geopolitical events are the most reliably negative catalysts for QQQ.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
Win Rate & Volatility by Event Type
Does knowing the event type tell you which way QQQ will go?
TypeEventsAvg ReturnWin RateVolatility σ
Banking Crisis3LOW N+0.959%67%σ 1.83%
AI9+0.457%89%σ 0.40%
Political12+0.321%58%σ 4.32%
Earnings11+0.272%55%σ 0.96%
Fed14+0.073%50%σ 1.32%
IPO15-0.201%53%σ 0.91%
Macro18-0.715%50%σ 2.30%
Geopolitical1LOW N-1.793%0%σ 0.00%
Pre/Post Event Return Window — D-2 through D+5
Average QQQ return in the days surrounding key event types. AI events show persistent positive drift after D0. Political (tariff) events show the sharpest D0 spike, then mean-reversion. Macro events show weakness before and after.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
QQQ − SPY Spread by Event Type
Positive spread = tech (QQQ) outperformed the broad market (SPY). AI and Earnings events drive the strongest tech outperformance. Macro and Geopolitical events trigger rotation away from tech into defensives, closing the spread.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
Top 20 Biggest Event-Driven Moves
Largest absolute QQQ moves on annotated event days — both directions
#DateQQQSPYTypeEvent
104/09/2025+12.135%+11.183%Political
90-day tariff PAUSE — largest single-day gain since 2020
Trump announced 90-day pause on most tariffs (not China); QQQ +12.1% — largest day in years
204/08/2025-5.044%-4.863%Political
China tariff escalation to 104%
Trump raised China tariffs to 104%; China matched; full trade war panic
306/05/2026-4.800%-2.580%Macro
Hot Jobs Report
May payrolls +172k (exp. 80k), unemployment 4.3%; rate hike fears crushed tech — Nasdaq worst day si
411/20/2025-4.243%-3.029%Macro
Major market shock
Significant macro-driven selloff — bond market dysfunction / fiscal fears
504/07/2025+3.678%+3.105%Political
Tariff pause rumors + short squeeze
Reports of possible tariff negotiations; oversold bounce + short covering
610/10/2025-3.582%-2.843%Political
Tariff escalation — 90-day pause expired
90-day China tariff truce expired; new tariff levels took effect; markets sold off
704/04/2025-3.531%-3.512%Political
China 34% retaliation tariff
China matched US tariffs 1:1; trade war escalation; recession fears spiked
812/18/2024-3.491%-2.931%Fed
FOMC -25bps — hawkish shock
Fed cut 25bps but projected only 2 cuts in 2025 (down from 4); market crashed
902/27/2025-3.447%-1.977%Macro
Tariff threat + weak PCE + NVDA selloff
Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada/Mexico; PCE data + market fear selloff
1003/16/2023+2.956%+2.402%Banking
Credit Suisse/First Republic backstop
Swiss National Bank extended CS $54B credit line; First Republic got $30B deposit infusion
1103/03/2025-2.829%-2.082%Political
Canada/Mexico tariffs activated
25% tariffs took effect on Canada/Mexico; markets sold off hard
1208/07/2024-2.625%-1.856%Macro
Carry trade volatility continues
Market re-tested lows as carry trade unwind continued
1308/01/2024-2.565%-1.730%Macro
Sahm Rule triggered + Japan rate hike fears
Weak jobs report; Japan BoJ raised rates; yen carry trade unwind begins
1410/06/2023+2.545%+1.794%Macro
Jobs Report (Sep) — big beat
Nonfarm payrolls +336K vs 170K expected; strong economy signal
1509/06/2024-2.529%-1.742%Macro
Weak jobs report
Payrolls +142K vs 165K exp; recession fears re-emerge
1608/05/2024+2.510%+1.122%Macro
Japan carry trade collapse — Black Monday
Nikkei -12%; VIX hit 65; yen surged; global market selloff and bounce
1704/24/2025+2.381%+1.858%Earnings
Alphabet/Tesla beat + trade deal hopes
GOOGL beat; TSLA surprise; US-China trade dialogue reported
1803/31/2026+2.284%+1.784%Macro
Quarter-end rebalancing rally
Q1 end institutional rebalancing + window dressing
1903/09/2026+2.277%+1.783%Macro
Market recovery / buyback season
Strong corporate buyback activity + economic data recovery
2003/28/2025-2.265%-1.745%IPO
CoreWeave (CRWV) IPO
AI cloud compute; priced at $40 (below $47-55 range) — IPO disappoints; AI infra demand questioned
Key Findings: What the Data Actually Shows
AI events are the strongest catalyst (89% win rate)
Avg +0.46% QQQ, 8 of 9 events positive. The only exception was DeepSeek (Jan 27 2025) which dragged QQQ −3.8% intraday as NVDA fell 17%. Every other AI event — Sora, GPT-4o, Apple Intelligence, Stargate — was positive.
Banking crisis days average +0.96% — a counterintuitive positive (n=3)
Markets front-run FDIC/Fed backstop announcements faster than the initial panic. SVB's closure weekend was already partially priced by Monday open; the BTFP facility announcement drove a relief rally. Bailout speed matters more than the crisis itself. Small sample — treat with caution.
Fed days are a perfect coin flip: 7 up, 7 down (avg +0.07%)
The decision itself is irrelevant — only the language vs expectations matters. The Dec 2024 FOMC (−3.5%) held rates but projected only 2 cuts for 2025 instead of 4. Jun 2023 held rates for the first time in 15 months and rallied +0.8%.
Macro data days skew negative: avg −0.48%
Hot CPI means rate fears. Weak jobs means recession fears. Strong jobs means 'Fed won't cut.' The market finds a reason to sell on almost any data outcome during uncertain cycles. CPI prints are particularly toxic for QQQ vs SPY.
Political (tariff) events have the highest volatility (σ=4.32%) but positive avg
Apr 9 2025 (+12.1%) alone pulls the average positive. Excluding that day, political events average −0.8%. The lesson: tariff escalations are predictably negative; pause/rollback announcements are massive positive shocks.
Monday is the best trading day (+0.23%), Thursday the worst (−0.17%)
The Mon/Thu spread of 0.40% is the most persistent time-of-week pattern in the dataset. Possible explanations: weekend news digestion driving Monday optimism, Thursday pre-announcement anxiety (many FOMC/earnings happen Thursday evening/Friday morning).
AI and Earnings events drive the largest QQQ outperformance over SPY
On AI event days, QQQ outperforms SPY by an average of +0.35%. On Macro data days, SPY outperforms QQQ — classic defensive rotation. This spread is your tech-vs-broad-market signal.
Biggest Unannotated Moves
Largest QQQ swings (≥ 1.5%) on days without a tagged event — each has a real driver
#DateQQQSPYWhat Actually Happened
108/24/2023-3.065%-1.754%Pre-Jackson Hole anxiety — Powell speech scheduled Aug 25; traders de-risked the day before
204/15/2024-2.488%-2.073%Iran-Israel escalation follow-through — Iran's drone attack on Israel (Apr 13) triggered 2-day risk-off
304/04/2024-2.462%-1.996%Rate shock — services PMI beat pushed 10-yr yield above 4.4%, rotating capital out of tech
409/03/2024-2.407%-1.497%Post-Labor Day return — markets reopened to weak ISM manufacturing data and global risk-off selling
502/09/2023-2.318%-1.766%Post-Powell follow-through — 'higher for longer' message from Feb 7 Economic Club speech continued pressure
602/12/2026-2.289%-1.868%Broad tech valuation re-rating — sector-wide de-rating amid macro uncertainty and elevated growth multiples
702/21/2025-2.285%-1.675%DOGE/tariff crossfire — Trump policy uncertainty and AI valuation concerns still reverberating post-DeepSeek
805/26/2023+2.242%+1.129%NVIDIA AI halo day 2 — follow-through from Nvidia's historic AI earnings guidance beat on May 25
908/29/2023+2.240%+1.471%Post-Jackson Hole relief rally — recovery from Aug 25 sell-off; Nvidia Aug 23 earnings provided tailwind
1003/10/2025-2.217%-1.235%Tariff escalation spillover — steel/aluminum tariffs effective Mar 4 drove continued sector rotation
1107/24/2024-2.203%-1.390%Alphabet earnings miss — GOOGL Q2 YouTube revenue miss hit mega-cap sentiment week after CrowdStrike
1204/11/2025+2.193%+2.090%Tariff pause momentum — day-2 follow-through rally after Trump's historic +12% session on Apr 9
1301/20/2023+2.128%+1.482%January 2023 tech momentum — Fed pivot expectations drove one of the strongest January rallies in QQQ history
1402/07/2023+2.116%+1.546%Powell 'disinflation' speech — said 'disinflationary process has started' at Economic Club, sparking tech surge
1501/06/2023+2.070%+1.430%Soft NFP rally — Dec 2022 payrolls at +223K below estimates, reducing probability of 50bp hike
Market Anomalies & Freakonomics
Counterintuitive patterns hiding in 857 sessions of data. These are the things the textbooks don't tell you.
The Thursday Curse
Thursday is the ONLY weekday averaging negative returns (−0.17%). FOMC decisions fall on Wednesdays, making Thursday the reflexive 'second-guess' sell day. Many earnings also drop Thursday evening, adding pre-weekend risk. Avoid levered long positions into Thursday close.
Banking Panics Are Buy Signals
The 3 banking crisis days in this dataset averaged +0.96% — the 4th best event type. Markets have learned to price Fed backstops before the FDIC even finishes its press release. The crisis itself is the buy signal.
Best & Worst Days Were 24 Hours Apart
Apr 8 2025 (−5.04%) and Apr 9 2025 (+12.14%) are consecutive trading sessions — the worst and best days in 857 sessions. The 17.2pp swing in 48 hours is the largest 2-day whipsaw in the entire dataset. Both were driven by a single tweet.
IPO Days Are Bad for Existing Tech
On IPO days, QQQ averages −0.20%. The hype flows to the new listing while capital drains from existing holdings. The more exciting the IPO, the more existing tech gets sold to fund allocations. IPO days are 'sell the existing, buy the new' events.
AI Events: Great Win Rate, Modest Returns
AI events average +0.46% — roughly what two average Mondays return combined. The 89% win rate is exceptional, but the magnitude is unimpressive. AI news is priced in faster than it moves the index. The exception: NVDA earnings, which land differently than product launches.
Fed Decisions Are Pure Noise
Perfect 7-7 coin flip across 14 Fed meetings. The biggest single Fed day loss (−3.5%, Dec 2024) came from a HOLD decision — not a hike or cut. One word in the statement ('patient', 'data-dependent', 'restrictive') moves the market more than the actual rate decision.
The DeepSeek Monday Exception
Jan 27 2025 broke two statistical rules simultaneously: it was both an AI event AND a Monday — yet QQQ fell −3.8%. The only AI event to go negative, and one of the worst Mondays in the dataset. Cheap AI models threatening NVDA's moat triggered a semiconductor-led selloff.
Macro Data Hurts Tech More Than Broad Market
On macro data days, SPY outperforms QQQ by an average of 0.39%. Every hot CPI print triggers a rotation from growth stocks (QQQ) into defensives and value (SPY). This QQQ-SPY spread is the most reliable tech-vs-value signal in the dataset — bigger than any single event type.
NYC Weather vs. Market Returns
190 SUMMER DAYS · 2023–2025
Matched NYC summer weather data (Jun–Aug 2023–2025) against QQQ daily returns. Overall correlation is near zero (r ≈ 0.08, p = 0.26) — Wall Street traders have air conditioning. But one pattern stands out.
TEMPERATURE EFFECT
75–79°F+0.29%
80–84°F+0.08%
85–89°F−0.01%
90°F +−0.41%
avg QQQ daily return
WIN RATE
Hot days (≥88°F)
n=41
41%
Cool days (<88°F)
n=149
58%
Rainy days
n=30
53%
Clear days
n=168
55%
THE VERDICT
Rain barely matters. Temperature does — slightly. Hot NYC summer days (90°F+) averaged −0.41% vs +0.29% on mild days. Hypothesis: heat-induced energy consumption spikes raise input costs and dampen economic sentiment. Or traders are just crankier when it's hot. Either way, the correlation is statistically weak (p=0.26) — don't trade on it.
Bonus find: Mondays after rainy weekends (+0.38%) beat Mondays after dry weekends (+0.17%). Traders feeling rested from staying indoors?
Event Anatomy: Average Return Path
Composite average cumulative QQQ return from D-5 through D+20 for each selected event type. The D-5 baseline anchors every event at 0 — every line shows the average relative path a portfolio would have taken around that catalyst. Toggle types below.
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
Each line = composite average path across every annotated event of that type with a complete D-5 to D+20 window in the dataset.
Outcome Simulator
Pick an event type and a forward window. We compute the cumulative QQQ return over the next N trading sessions following every occurrence and plot the distribution.
Based on 9 historical events
@Trace_Cohen · t@nyvp.com
Mean
+1.18%
Median
+1.30%
Best Case
+5.29%
Worst Case
-2.39%
% Positive
67%
05Full Timeline
859 days
DateEvent TypeQQQSPYNDXQQQ−SPYEvent
06/05/2026Macro-4.800%-2.580%-4.800%-2.220%
Hot Jobs Report
May payrolls +172k (exp. 80k), unemployment 4.3%; rate hike fears crushed tech — Nasdaq worst day since Apr 20
06/04/2026Earnings-0.480%+0.380%-0.480%-0.860%
Broadcom AI miss
AVGO Q2 rev $22.19B missed; Q3 AI chip forecast $16B vs $17.2B est. Semis crater, Dow hits ATH on sector rotat
06/03/2026-0.415%-0.516%-0.517%+0.101%
06/02/2026+0.506%+0.336%+0.620%+0.171%
06/01/2026+0.773%+0.421%+0.722%+0.352%
05/29/2026+0.064%+0.077%-0.002%-0.013%
05/28/2026+0.804%+0.580%+0.643%+0.225%
05/27/2026-0.479%-0.056%-0.358%-0.423%
05/26/2026+0.595%+0.077%+0.491%+0.518%
05/22/2026-0.074%-0.080%+0.018%+0.007%
05/21/2026+0.779%+0.552%+0.711%+0.226%
05/20/2026+1.114%+0.753%+1.004%+0.361%
05/19/2026+0.246%-0.143%+0.083%+0.389%
05/18/2026-0.795%-0.160%-0.861%-0.636%
05/15/2026-0.170%-0.353%-0.227%+0.183%
05/14/2026+0.724%+0.608%+0.707%+0.116%
05/13/2026+0.669%+0.520%+0.710%+0.149%
05/12/2026-0.138%+0.175%-0.009%-0.313%
05/11/2026+0.412%+0.387%+0.462%+0.025%
05/08/2026+1.616%+0.366%+1.623%+1.250%
05/07/2026-0.235%-0.472%-0.170%+0.237%
05/06/2026+1.162%+0.779%+1.293%+0.383%
05/05/2026+0.538%+0.277%+0.430%+0.261%
05/04/2026-0.264%-0.286%-0.287%+0.022%
05/01/2026+0.746%-0.083%+0.734%+0.829%
Page 1 of 35 · 859 rows · 25 per page
Data: Yahoo Finance · Open→Close intraday return · Not adjusted for dividends or overnight gaps · For informational use only · JSON API
@Trace_Cohent@nyvp.com